Hrmm...

Ok, yeah, I know. My blog titles suck. But, it's what I'm thinking right about now... Hrmm.....

After all my ranting last week, I guess the bears have finally somewhat subsided or have been overcome by some bullish activity. In fact some say the bulls will continue on into sometime next week before maybe the bears take over again. I for one am happy the bears have subsided the beating to another day.

Anyways enough with stuff we already know, lets talk about how we're doing:

If you have been trading exactly as me, you should be relatively happy right now.

Intel Corp:

NQDC (April $15) calls of Intel Corp. (INTC)
Cost basis: $.59
Contracts owned: 70
Current price of premium: $.77

NQGN (July $14) calls of Intel Corp. (INTC)
Cost basis: $1.20
Contracts owned: 10
Current price of premium: $1.97

Total gains for Intel Corp. heading into this week: $2,000

WDOAB (Jan. 2010 $10) calls of Dow Chemical (DOW)
Cost basis: $2.30
Contracts owned: 10
Current price of premium: $1.25

We are currently losing $1,050 with this one, but its January 2010 call so there's still some time to this one. After this rally dies out, and the bears move back in. I plan to buy more of Dow Chemical, to lower the cost basis.

In talking about Intel Corp. everyone that knows my investing style would know that I would usually take the profits in this situation and walk. It would be a 37.52% gain in only 1 month. But, I believe there is a little bit more steam to this rally left. Some colleagues of mine have bought into Microsoft saying it has been unfairly beaten in this rally. If what they say is true, that would mean there is more steam left in Intel. So we shall see. (I plan to keep you updated if I setup stop losses. This is to prevent profit loss if my current positions were to decrease in value drastically.)

So far so good. Now let's go make some money. See you Monday morning.

Just waiting...

Today is a very beautiful day. Unfortunately, I am indoors. It smells so good.
Lately, I just been waiting. And you are probably too. I am just waiting and waiting for all the f*#king bears to finally be done and go jump off a cliff! Unfortunately, I don't think they'll be done anytime soon. I am just getting kinda sick and annoyed of them. Another week won by the bears... and probably this week too...

Anyways, here are the usual suspects:

NQDC: I do not plan to add anymore to this position unless INTC drops below $11.40

NQGN: I might add to this position this week as July may be a much hotter month for Intel than April. (Anyways, stay tuned)

DOW: yep yep, just waiting on the bears to be done with this gal, then I will fix her back up... Make her look pretty again.

So yeah, this weeks update is pretty bland. I'm sorry. Blame the bears. They are the ones that made it so bland. We are currently playing the waiting game...

Back in black (hopefully)

Alright, after going dark for more than a year. Don't worry I haven't lost my touch. Just been trading out of the scene. I am finally back, and hopefully I will keep everyone in the black.

UPDATE:
Well, I know everyone probably want to know how my hedge funds investments turned out. Let's just say with the economic collapse of the world, spun with greedy ponzi scheme owners. My investments in that sector is gone. Am I devastated? Yes. Will I be back on my feet again this year? Yes. Am I still heavily investing, and giving awesome advice to my readership? Yes. So, life goes on....

Ok, now that I am done with the simple update. If you need more info. to be brought up to speed leave me comments. I will respond. Otherwise, lets jump right into investing. People are losing money left and right in this bear market and we need to fix that ASAP! LOL

Lets talk about my current portfolio:

Current positions:

NQDC (April $15) calls of Intel Corp. (INTC)
Cost basis: $.78
Contracts owned: 50
Current price of premium: $.30

NQGN (July $14) calls of Intel Corp. (INTC)
Cost basis: $1.20
Contracts owned: 10
Current price of premium: $1.08

WDOAB (Jan. 2010 $10) calls of Dow Chemical (DOW)
Cost basis: $2.30
Contracts owned: 10
Current price of premium: $1.28

Well, if you have been attuned to the market lately. You would have noticed a massive drop in stocks in the past month. I believe it's the market attempting to realize many of Obama's plans to get us out of this economic recession. So, as a trader my current recommendations to you is to stop trading and hold off on new positions. Seriously, take a month break. Give it another month at least, before jumping back in the game. Let the market realize what's going on instead of massive speculation in setting trends. You'll thank me later on the money you'll save.

If you insist on trading, I can recommend you adding to your current positions. Because they will continue to take a hit, during the month of March before rebounding. Therefore, it would be more beneficial for you to lower your cost basis than creating new positions that may decrease in value immediately.

As far as my portfolio goes... If the premium for NQDC falls at or below $.25 this week. I plan to add another 20 contracts to that position.

If the premium of NQGN falls at or below $.90 this week. I plan to add another 10 contracts to that position.

As far as my other Dow Chem. position goes... I am just holding will not add to it.

Wellp, I hope you are up to speed again. now that I am back. Stay tuned this week for my next post. As I talk about potential positions to enter, when this bearish move delays itself in the bear market.

New Year is on the Way

Usually, my Sunday night posts are random incoherent ramblings and opinions. This Sunday it will be a tad different in a sense of an application to my rambling opinions.

I would like to focus on the Options market. I like the options market, it allows one to invest small amounts of money for greater profits, but of course greater risks are attached. Ok, I want to get straight to the point, tired of attempting to explain things to my readership that most likely know more than me anyways. I’ll ramble in the end, and get on my soap box for the people that miss that part.

Here is a supposed rebounding stock that I talked about on Thursday, ADBL. Looking at its options chain today the last strike price on Friday was 8.89. OBQAU asked for 1.60 and 7.50 was the strike price. By the looks of this, one may say hey this guy can make a profit of .21 cents per share or 2.36% profit at the end of the month when the option expires. That sounds pretty decent right? Well, here is a cardinal opinion (rule) of mine with options trading. VOLUME. ADBL has a volume of 101,400 on Friday. That literally scares me. And looking at its history, you probably have a better chance of winning the lottery than gambling with 10.00 with OBQAB at the end of the month. Although, you’ll have a nice return of 14.17% at the end of the month, but its too emotional. Taking emotions out of the trade is what professionals do. Be a pro. Anyways, we shall see at the end of this month. Will the gamblers win with the strike price at or higher than 10.00 or would the conservatives win at the strike price of 7.50 or higher.

Alright, here is another exact same kind of stock DYAX. Friday’s last strike price was 3.59 with DQAAZ at 2.50 asking price of 1.20. Good idea? I’d so no, but we’ll paper trade anyways. Again, reason is volume of trades raises a red flag for me. Although the profit would be roughly 2% gain, which ain’t that bad. (as they say it in the south)

Next, I’ll bring up IOC, which was talked about on Friday. I feel IOC is a lot better example for the strategy I’m talking about today. It has a higher volume of trading and I believe it has hit its support point for now, and likely going up a bit before coming back down. Again, we’ll see on January 25, 2008 right?

IOC had a last strike price of 19.69. IOCAW had a strike price of 17.50 asking 3.20. Therefore, the potential gain here is 1.01 per share or 5.12%. Now we’re talking, right? (5.12% return on investment!) But still, would I buy it? I’d say no. Again, here is another cardinal opinion of mine that separates amateurs from pros. Never ever buy a stock from a company you don’t understand. You might understand InterOil Corporation like the back of your hand, but I sure don’t. I’ll even admit I don’t understand the sector it is in. Always research and understand how the company is making their profits and what the hell do they do. Is what they do good or bad? Who is there competition? How the sector the company belongs in is doing? Etc... I would hate to see you invest in a company only to see them file chapter 11 the next day, believe me if you think no luck is that bad, I seen it happen and it ain’t pretty.

Anyways, I’m off my soap box, you get the point. We’ll see what happens with IOC on the 25^th for the people that do understand this company. Nothing wrong with some good old fashion paper trading.

Okay, let’s look at PCR. I know more about this company than IOC. The sector it’s in is coming under heavier scrutiny recently. (Congress is pissed at Halliburton Company and others) But I speculate a potential rebound with this on going war that seems to be growing, and constant military build-up. So if the sector rebounds PCR should be looking prettier than now. But I still wouldn’t buy, because I don’t know enough about the company. So lets paper trade. Alright, last strike price of 42.89 was observed at closing. PCRAH was at 40 with asking of 4.30. This shows a potential profit of 1.41 per share or 3.28%. Again, I’m concerned about the low volume of trades. I also wonder if 40 is a low enough support to speculate. Historically, it would seem a potential rebound, but with all this talks of recession will this company or even sector rebound? Only time will tell.

So everyone these days is speculating whether or not 2008 will bring us to a recession or not. I would like to speculate it is a good time to buy. Now I don’t mean buy blindly and wherever, obviously. But I do believe there are some key sectors that are down and just going through the economic cycles. (Namely, housing, lending, and insurance companies.) If you haven’t noticed by now, you’ve been living under a cave. And by the looks these sectors could take a bigger hit on 08 or potential climb and then drop or a climb and no recession. And with that, I will just stop there. I could go in with greater detail and speculate which companies, like Citigroup, Countrywide, Beazer Homes, and etc… And what strategies to take in a particular sector… (Sorry, I know some people enjoy reading my weekly articles about the market, but this week is a big no.) But I won’t at this point I feel this subject has been beaten to a bloody pulp, I am sick and tired of reading, hearing, and talking about it. I refuse to add any good insight to this topic.

But I will get on my soap box today in an attempt to persuade you to be a professional investor. Because every rule I state will be what the professionals do in an attempt to maintain consistency in the dynamic market.

A professional never focuses on gains. They always focus on what are my potential losses, and calculate the risk of it happening. I can’t stress this enough. I only talk about gains, is because that’s what everyone wants to hear. And we’re paper trading for crying out loud. No one is bleeding at the end of the day. But you better believe, if I was actually trading, I will be researching the likelihood of loss over gains. A gain is a gain big or small; no one is ever pissed about gains. It’s the losses.

Don’t buy stocks you don’t understand. I already stated this topic earlier. You get the point. Go back and read that paragraph if you don’t.

Sell when you’re making too much too fast. WTF??? Yeah, I just pissed everyone off with this one. But it’s true, even professionals struggle with this one. You have to learn to take emotions out of the trade. When you trade with emotions you will make a bad decision. When you trade rationally you make better decisions. You have to watch out if you are making too many risky emotionally charged decisions. If you treat it like gambling, guess what, the house always wins and you’re not the house. Making too much too fast, beating the market daily. Sell!!! Get out quick, before you lose, and rethink your strategy.

Never buy before or right after a quarterly reports. Alright if the last one didn’t piss you off, I’m sure this one did. Speculation emotion more speculation = gambling = no money. I don’t know how to put it any easier than that. Let’s stop here for a moment and see what you as a single investor is up against. Before the quarterly reports, you are probably researching off your ass trying to speculate Wall Street expectations. (If not, you’re already knocked down they just haven’t killed you yet.) You in take plenty of propaganda about the company from many “established figures” of that sector. Little do you realize, these figures can care less about one little small investor, you. They care about themselves, their company, and their big money making client portfolios, again not you. They can ramble bullshit to push prices up knowing damn well quarterly earnings are going to make prices fall. Okay, let’s say you were somehow able to assess the risk on all the propaganda and come up with a nice speculation. Once the quarterly earnings report is out, you have to deal with an army. (If you plan to ride the wave...) A sole you vs. an army I wonder who would win? When I say army I mean, companies like Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and etc… The same people that were giving you propaganda before the report was out are now working at the speed of light against you. Each of these companies have teams and teams of people getting paid more than a $100,000 a year with bonus checks upwards of $100,000 a year for the sole purpose of analyzing the quarterly earnings reports the very second they become public and coming up with a speculation at light speeds. Then beating you with a speculation that is 1,000 times more precise, and deciding whether to invest with boatloads of money that will force a trend in any direction. And by the time you realized that they did all this? They pulled out their money and taken their profits. And you retain nothing. As much as people keep saying the playing field has become more and more even today than years past. I find that hard to believe, these big companies will always have leverage over a single investor. They have money, manpower, experience, and political power. You can’t win. And all they care about is more money for them. You lose your retirement in the process of trying to ride with them tough luck. I’d say the risks outweigh the gains heavily. I’d wait until the quarterly earnings reports are realized then make an educated decision on whether the company is worth investing in. If this company really is good no quarterly earnings report will affect the long run performance of the company stock.

Alright, I will get off my soap box finally. So yeah, I was still able to rant as usual on Sundays. But I was also able to have some Thursday fun, and analyze stocks too. As you can see I’m really passionate about my rules. I developed them through experience and observing others. Hopefully these same rules will benefit you.

Alright, I’m back after a long hiatus. It has been a while since my last post. I have been caught up with life. (I hope everyone knows what I mean.)
Anyways, here are the current stocks I am watching and perhaps picking:

adbl
buy @ 8.35 or 9.35
sell @ 10.45
dump @ 7.80

cptc
buy @ 1.25 or 1.45
sell @ 1.85
considered too low to dump

dyax
buy @ 3.30 or 3.50
sell @ 4.00
dump @ 2.25

hgt
buy @ 21.90 or 22
sell @ 23.90
dump @ 20.90

ioc
buy @ 19.10 or 20.90
sell @ 23.90
dump @ 17.00

lphi
buy @ 27 or 30
sell @ 33
dump @ 25

pcr
buy @ 43 or 47.50
sell @ 55
dump @ 39

wor
buy @ 17.90 or 19.50
sell @ 20.90
dump @ 17

So yeah, again I try to avoid the energy sector, but they keep biting me to look at them. My favorite sector currently has to be biomedical. Alright, I have to go now, so I will talk about these stocks in my next post.

black friday

I felt my thanksgiving day post was rather not satisfying. So I owe it to my vast readership (lol) to talk about something more fulfilling. Anyways, I have been having fun paper trading quite a bit recently. So lets talk about some stocks I am currently paper trading:

Bzh

Wern

Zoll

Vicl

So yeah, what’s significant about those 4 stocks? Absolutely nothing! Which is why those stocks were chosen. I did choose them because they were low in price and through analysis of historical performance they have a potential for a bullish run. But yeah, we won’t think about the latter half of what I just stated, that would make too much sense. So yeah, lets keep those picks in mind as we head on into the holiday months.

Okay so now that I got my weekly picks out of the way. Let’s talk about the market a little. Well, today’s black Friday, and so far it’s looking pretty good for the retail industry as usual. (just like last year) All eyes seem to always look at the retail sector during black Friday which makes sense. Because of this over all the market is having a nice rally today as it seems. But I am still rather skeptical about a more long-term rally as we enter the holiday months ahead. But only time will tell, hopefully I’m wrong of course. Well, I think I got my feet wet enough with this post. It’s a good solid second post I’d say. I’ll tip my legs in the water next time.

Thanksgiving

So I created a couple of portfolios simulating actual equities being traded… Since I keep hearing all this talk about Jim Cramer and how popular he is on Mad Money. I plan to document his performance. (I realize many people are already doing this, and some University students have researched his stock pickings from Mad Money. The results were an investor would have lost money if they were to purchase the equities he suggested, and sold those equities when he suggested it.) But sometimes documenting your own results of someone else’s positions help you learn about the market and trading conditions. Which is why I encourage every novice investor to try it. Doesn’t have to be Jim Cramer’s portfolio, it could be anyone’s portfolio, I recommend someone with a good track record though.

Okay, enough talking about other people’s positions, you are probably wondering where my positions are, and why I chose them. Well let me first begin… My current positions are not in the equities market. (shock!) I currently have most of my money tied in a private hedge fund called Legisi. (shock again!) Yes, that’s right, I believe every young investor which would includes me, needs to have some positions in a higher risk market. (more on this later) Although, I said that young people need to take risks, I myself might have chosen a bad risk with Legisi. As of currently Legisi is in some turmoil, and my positions in it are in limbo. Now am I distraught over such havoc? Not at all. This is because I (and you should to) take different investing approaches on each investment. It's called risk assessment. I believe for what Legisi had to offfer it was well worth the risk, despite it being in turmoil now. So now you know a little bit more of my style of investing, and also where I stand as far as positions go. Well, I feel this is good enough for a first post, a little about me and where this blog is headed.